# AI Memory Makers Are Swimming in Cash. Their Buyers Can’t Borrow. *URL:* https://millionaur.com/millionaur-2026-10-26-daily-analysis/ *Updated:* 2026-10-26T21:01:37+00:00 Over the weekend two headlines landed within hours of each other, and together they explain last week’s chip sell-off better than any chart. - SK hynix, the world’s largest maker of AI memory, is reported to be weighing a special dividend of about $12 billion, paid from gains on a stake it sold. Analysts expect it to report around 77 trillion won of operating profit this quarter, a margin near 78%. - At the same time, Elon Musk said debt markets have almost entirely shut off for AI cloud companies that have no other substantial business. The suppliers have more cash than they can use. Some of the buyers cannot borrow. Demand is not the constraint. Where the money sits is. ## A correction first On Friday I wrote that SK hynix reports on 27 October. It reports on Wednesday 28 October. That puts its results, the Fed decision and the reports from Microsoft and Alphabet all on the same day. My memory test simply moves by one day. ## Why this week matters - **Wednesday:** SK hynix, the Fed (rates expected to stay at 3.75 to 4.00%), then Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG) after the close. - **Thursday:** Samsung, Amazon, US growth and inflation data. The one question for the cloud giants: will they pay for next year’s AI spending from cash flow, or increasingly from new debt and shares? Their answer decides which side of the invoice they stand on. ## Friday’s rules, applied I write my exit and review levels in advance. Friday’s weekly closes decided four of them: - Oracle (ORCL) closed the week at $126.87, below my $130 line. Oracle is the one AI builder in the portfolio that relies on borrowed money, so the rule says it leaves. Small loss, no drama. - Micron Technology (MU) closed at $880.15, above my $858 review line. Nothing to do. No additions before Samsung reports on Thursday. - Coherent (COHR) closed below $220, so the review applies: the small position stays through its results in early November. - Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) closed at $416, still below my $430 entry level. The next purchase waits until Friday 30 October, after its biggest customers report. On Friday I also re-opened 17 smaller positions in metals, uranium, power and optics at full standard size after recent declines. That marks the losses and keeps every theme copyable. ## The hedges - Oil rose about 6.5% last week, Brent near $117, on attacks on Gulf energy sites. The energy positions are in profit and their trailing stops moved higher automatically. - Gold fell about 4% to below $4,000, its fourth disappointing week. I hold it, but I am not adding. - The Treasury bond position worked on last week’s scare day. A second purchase waits until after the Fed. - Cash is about 10% of the portfolio, kept for opportunities after this week, not before it. ## What I watch, and what changes my mind - If SK hynix and Samsung show server memory demand rising while phones are flat, memory stays at full size and Samsung becomes the first candidate to add. - If both show weakness, no additions and I review the memory fund at its yearly low. - If Microsoft and Alphabet fund more of their spending with debt, the funding worry spreads to the strongest buyers, and I stay patient for longer. - Microsoft has a protective stop about 2% below its price. A move after the results could close it with a gain of around 37%. ## Risks, openly - Three major events on one Wednesday can move prices sharply in either direction. - Oil above $110 together with a cautious Fed is a difficult mix for growth shares. - Brazil’s currency fell sharply after Sunday’s election (the dollar opened Monday about 8.6% higher against the real). My exposure is small and indirect, through an emerging-market bond fund. - Memory and Korea are about 10% of the portfolio, so this week’s two results matter. ## The process Every decision this week was written before the week began. That is the point. The market will spend four days arguing about who pays for the AI build. I do not need to win that argument in advance. I only need to be positioned to act on the answer. Patience is a position too. *Portfolio snapshot: Monday 26 October 2026, 07:08 UTC (US prices = Friday close). Published later the same day.* Sources: [Korea Herald on the SK hynix special dividend report](https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10914252), [TrendForce SK hynix earnings preview](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/10/26/news-sk-hynix-3q-earnings-preview-record-profit-at-78-operating-margin-hbm4-ltas-solidigm-in-focus/), [the week in commodities](https://sharetrader.com.au/news/2026-10-24-gold-below-us4000-as-brent-passes-us116-the-week-in-commodities), [MercoPress on Brazil’s markets](https://en.mercopress.com/2026/10/26/brazil-s-real-plunges-more-than-8-and-s-o-paulo-stocks-slump-after-lula-s-victory). *This is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and copy trading carries a real risk of losing money. Always do your own research.* --- Human page: https://millionaur.com/millionaur-2026-10-26-daily-analysis/?vwao_human=1