# OpenAI Is Smaller Than Assumed, but AI Suppliers Are Still Sold Out

*URL:* https://millionaur.com/millionaur-2026-10-09-daily-analysis/
*Updated:* 2026-10-09T06:46:35+00:00

Two pieces of news arrived twelve hours apart on Thursday, and they looked like opposites.

First, a press report said OpenAI’s yearly revenue pace is about $50 billion, not the $70 billion many investors had been assuming. Chip stocks fell: Nvidia (NVDA) lost about 3%, the main chip fund (SMH) about 2.8%, the Nasdaq 1.25%.

Then, after the close, the chief executive of Lumentum (LITE) said the company’s optical parts for AI servers are completely sold out into early 2029, and that building new capacity takes three to five years.

## The lesson: ask who pays the invoice

Both can be true, because they describe different links in the chain.

- Some AI companies sell to the largest technology groups, which pay from their own profits. Chip foundries such as Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), memory makers and laser makers are in this group. Thursday’s report did not cancel a single order there. It changed the price investors were willing to pay.
- Other companies depend on one fast-growing customer that pays with money it raises from investors. Their order books are only as solid as that customer. This is where the report really matters.

One more detail supports the first group: the leading chip foundry signed a five-year agreement with a US partner for a packaging component, with volume starting in 2028. New supply is years away, not months.

A correction of my own: yesterday I wrote that Thursday’s fall was about interest rates and oil. That was true in the morning. In the afternoon rates and oil eased, and chips fell further because of the revenue report. I should have separated the two.

## What changed in the portfolio

- Three more floors were reached: two units of the chip fund, each about 8% in profit, and Nippon Electric Glass at about +5%. That makes 29 exits in four sessions, all in profit.
- Within twenty minutes of the last exit I bought back one unit each of the chip fund, the photonics fund and Vistra (VST), and added one unit of the defense fund. Small units, close to the prices where the floors had sold.
- One honest note: the Japanese exit happened at the Tokyo open and filled 1.5% below its level. It is the third time this week that a tight floor on a single company was hit at a market open.
- Cash is about 23% of the portfolio. The portfolio is roughly flat since yesterday’s update.
- Oracle (ORCL) is the one position here that depends heavily on that single customer. It is small, slightly negative, and under review.

## What I am watching

- Tuesday 13 October: the large US banks report. Wednesday 14 October: US inflation, expected near 3.7% because of oil. Thursday 15 October: Taiwan Semiconductor results.
- Bonds: two large US government bond sales this week found strong demand, and the 10-year yield eased from 5.35% to about 5.23%. I still hold no long bonds before the inflation number.
- Laser makers: I would add only after the price repairs Thursday’s fall, not before.
- Memory: about 10% of the portfolio. If the memory fund ends a week below its September low, I reduce.

## Risks, stated openly

Both large AI developers are expected to publish audited numbers when they list, and another gap would hurt the same stocks again. Inflation may come in hot. Buying back early can be wrong: the chip fund closed below the level I had set as confirmation. Most of what is left in the portfolio has no floor under it. Any of this can cost money.

## The takeaway

In a shortage, the question is not only who has the product. It is also who can pay for it, and from what. I try to own the first group and stay light on the second.

*Portfolio snapshot taken on 9 October 2026 at 06:31 UTC; US prices are Thursday’s close or overnight marks.*

Sources: [Yahoo Finance on OpenAI’s annualized revenue](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/article/openais-annualized-revenue-20-billion-lower-than-prior-investor-estimates-174058048.html); [Bloomberg interview with Lumentum’s CEO](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-10-09/lumentum-ceo-opto-parts-capacity-sold-out-to-2029-video); [Reuters on the GlobalFoundries and TSMC agreement](https://investing.com/news/stock-market-news/globalfoundries-to-make-key-ai-chip-component-for-tsmc-4939071); [Motley Fool market recap for 8 October](https://www.fool.com/coverage/stock-market-today/2026/10/08/stock-market-today-oct-8-tech-stocks-slide-as-treasury-yields-and-oil-prices-surge/).

*This is not financial advice. Copy trading involves real risk of loss, and past performance does not guarantee future results.*

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