# Record Profit, Lower Price: Why Samsung and TSMC Fell on a Beat *URL:* https://millionaur.com/millionaur-2026-10-08-daily-analysis/ *Updated:* 2026-10-08T17:28:58+00:00 On Thursday Samsung Electronics (SMSN.L) reported the largest quarterly operating profit any technology company has ever made: about 107 trillion won, close to $80 billion, nearly nine times last year’s figure and slightly above what analysts expected. The shares fell 2.4%. The Korean index fell 2.6%. The same day Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) reported quarterly revenue above the top of its own guidance, up about 51% on the year. Its shares fell about 3%. ## The lesson: price is not only about earnings Two things mattered more than the results this week. - **Interest rates.** The US 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.35%, its highest since 2002. Minutes from the Federal Reserve showed most officials still expect another rate rise this year. When safe bonds pay more, investors pay less for future profits, even very large ones. - **Oil.** Brent crude jumped about 5% to roughly $105 after new attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz. Higher oil means higher inflation risk, which pushes yields up again. There is also a detail inside the memory story. Prices are still rising, but more slowly: industry forecasts point to contract prices up 10 to 15% next quarter, after about 60% in the spring. Markets often sell when growth slows, even from a record. My reading: demand for AI hardware was confirmed again by the two most important suppliers in the chain. The price fell for reasons outside the companies. ## What changed in the portfolio - 18 stops fired in about 28 hours. Every one closed in profit, about 10% on average. Among them: all of Vistra (VST) at about +10%, Viavi (VIAV) at about +23%, TDK at about +21%, Sumitomo Electric at about +13%, Coherent (COHR), ON Semiconductor (ON), part of Nvidia (NVDA) and part of the chip funds. - Over the last three sessions that makes 26 exits, all in profit. The portfolio is about 2% lower over the same days, while many of the sold names fell between 4% and 8%. - Cash is now about 23% of the portfolio, up from about 15% two days ago. It was not a forecast. The floors I had placed did the selling. - Before the Samsung report I added back one unit of Micron (MU) and one unit of the memory fund (DRAM). I also added small units of uranium, copper miners, rare earths and silver. All of them are slightly below my entry price today. - One honest note: two of the exits happened in the first minute of the US session and filled 0.6% and 1.9% below their levels. Stops placed very close to the price are the ones most exposed to that. ## What I am watching, and the levels written in advance - Wednesday 14 October: US inflation data. Thursday 15 October: Taiwan Semiconductor results. 29 October: Samsung’s full report, including its spending plans. - Chip fund: I rebuy the unit that was sold only if the fund closes back above the price where it was sold. - Vistra: I return with one unit if it closes back above about 162, or if it falls back to where it traded before last week’s news. - Optical and laser companies are now only 1% of the portfolio. The shortage there has not changed. I return through the sector fund first, and only after it closes above its first exit level. - Memory: about 10% of the portfolio with almost no floors under it. If the memory fund ends a week below its September low, I reduce. ## Risks, stated openly Yields may keep rising. Oil may stay above $100. Samsung could announce a large increase in factory spending on 29 October, which would hurt memory prices later. What is left in the portfolio after the stops is mostly the positions that were not in profit, so a further fall would be felt. Selling at a floor can also mean selling near the low of the day. Any of these can cost this portfolio money. ## The takeaway A plan made on a calm day is worth more than a decision made on a red one. The exits were written in advance. So are the prices at which I buy back. *Portfolio snapshot: 8 October 2026, 17:14 UTC, during the US session.* Sources: [Seoul Economic Daily on Samsung’s preliminary Q3 results](https://en.sedaily.com/finance/2026/10/08/samsung-quarterly-operating-profit-tops-107-trillion-won); [TrendForce on TSMC’s Q3 revenue](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/10/08/news-tsmc-q3-revenue-beats-forecasts-at-record-nt1-49-trillion-net-profit-seen-surging-64/); [TheStreet market report, 8 October 2026](https://www.thestreet.com/stock-market-today/stock-market-today-dow-jones-sp-500-nasdaq-updates-oct-08-2026). *This is not financial advice. Copy trading involves real risk of loss, and past performance does not guarantee future results.* --- Human page: https://millionaur.com/millionaur-2026-10-08-daily-analysis/?vwao_human=1