# The AI Shortage Is Real. So Is the Share Supply Paying for It *URL:* https://millionaur.com/millionaur-2026-10-06-daily-analysis/ *Updated:* 2026-10-06T07:47:33+00:00 **Monday brought a record close for the Nasdaq (+1.05%), a new all-time high for Nvidia (NVDA), and at the same time a fresh 52-week high for the US 10-year yield, near 5.32%.** The reason for the bond move was simple this time: the September services survey showed prices paid at 74, the highest since July 2022. Inflation in services is speeding up again. In Europe, worries about French public finances pushed the euro to a 17-month low. But the most useful lesson of the day was somewhere else. ## The lesson: who pays for the new factories Three AI-infrastructure companies I follow closely were sold on the same day, and not because demand is weak: - Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) finished selling $600 million of new shares at an average price near $105. It is the third such programme this year. - Corning (GLW) opened a programme to sell up to $2 billion of new shares. The stock fell about 4%. - Nebius (NBIS) fell about 5% after filings showed its top executives sold shares, following its third large convertible bond in under a year. Lasers, optical fibre and AI computing capacity are all in short supply. Building more costs billions. When share prices are high, companies raise that money by selling stock. Good for the business, a headwind for shareholders, because a steady seller appears on every rally. My conclusion: inside the same bottleneck, I prefer companies that fund expansion from their own cash flow or customer prepayments over those that keep issuing shares. And a finished share sale is very different from an open one: once it is done, the pressure is gone. ## What changed in the portfolio - Three stops fired, all in profit. Veeco Instruments (VECO) closed at about +28%, Taiyo Yuden at about +15% and Applied Optoelectronics at about +10%. Nothing was sold by hand. The levels were set in advance and did the work. - One honest detail: the Veeco stop was very tight, about 1% under the price. It filled in the first seconds of the US open, about 0.7% below its level. I flagged that risk yesterday. Tight stops and opening auctions do not mix well. - More protection was added: a first stop under part of the Nvidia position, and higher stops under TDK, Sumitomo Electric, Murata, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Microsoft (MSFT). 36 positions now have a floor. - TDK gained about 6% in Tokyo on reports that AI demand may lift its targets. That line is up about 24%. - Cash is now about 14% of the portfolio. I am in no hurry to spend it this week. - I hold Corning and Nebius at small size, about 0.5% each, and I am not adding to either. ## A correction Yesterday I wrote that Samsung’s quarterly operating profit was expected above 110 trillion won. Forecasts have come down slightly; the figure now cited is about 107 trillion won. Still a record, and the first quarter ever above 100 trillion. ## What I am watching - Wednesday: minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting. - Thursday: Samsung’s preliminary results. An in-line number confirms that memory prices are holding. I will read the spending plans more closely than the profit, because new supply is what ends a shortage. Part of my Micron (MU) position has a stop close below the price. If rates trigger it, I would replace it. If a supply surprise triggers it, I would not. - Applied Optoelectronics: I would consider a small re-entry only if the price holds above the level where the new shares were sold, and only if no new share sale is filed. ## Risks, stated openly Yields are rising on weak data and on strong data. That hurts bonds, utilities and gold, and it can hit expensive technology shares quickly. The index is at a record while most stocks are far below their highs. Korea, the heart of the memory trade, slipped again this morning as foreign investors kept selling. More share sales across AI infrastructure are likely while valuations stay high. Any of these can cost this portfolio money. ## The takeaway A shortage does not make every stock in it a good holding. Ask who owns the scarce capacity, and who is paying for the next factory. Then let levels written in advance make the selling decisions. *Portfolio snapshot: 6 October 2026, 07:35 UTC. US lines carry Monday’s close; Tokyo lines carry Tuesday’s close.* Sources: [TheStreet on Monday’s market close](https://www.thestreet.com/stock-market-today/stock-market-today-dow-jones-sp-500-nasdaq-updates-oct-05-2026), [Applied Optoelectronics on completing its share offering](https://www.stocktitan.net/news/AAOI/applied-optoelectronics-announces-completion-of-previously-announced-sggoxaasn9r9.html), [Yahoo Finance on Corning’s equity offering](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/glw-stock-drops-premarket-corning-085405425.html), [The Motley Fool on Samsung’s expected results](https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/10/05/samsung-may-report-its-first-100-trillion-won-quarter-micron-stock-has-more-to-lose-than-to-gain/). This is not financial advice. Investing and copy trading involve real risk of loss, and past performance does not guarantee future results. --- Human page: https://millionaur.com/millionaur-2026-10-06-daily-analysis/?vwao_human=1